McCain’s Chances

There seems to be a false debate among those who think McCain can still win and those who think he doesn’t have a shot. Of course, as in any election, we’ll never know until the votes are counted, as I learned in New Hampshire this January. But, without gaming out all of the possibilities, let me put it this way. If you look at the electoral map, it’s pretty clear that Obama has multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes (there are even scenarios under which he can get there without Ohio, Florida, or Pennsylvania), while McCain has to sweep about 10 states that are either close or in which Obama leads. So, while Obama can have a bunch of things not go his way and still win, McCain needs just about everything to break his way. Sure, Hillary’s upset in New Hampshire rocked the political world, but to win next Tuesday, McCain will need several New Hampshires.