We’ll obviously have to wait for more polls to see if he’s up “big,” but if you look at the trend in the electoral map, you get a sense of the recent move toward Obama. And remember, Obama’s route to 270 isn’t all that difficult.
If Obama can hang on to all the Kerry states, he’s already at 252. Assume he wins Iowa, where he’s well ahead, and he’s up to 259. This means that Obama becomes president if he’s able to flip any one of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, or Indiana. Or, any two of: Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
McCain is either going to have to play effective defense of the Bush states, or reverse recent Republican fortunes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and/or Minnesota to win. Given the economic crisis, that seems like a pretty tall order.