Whether you want to call it a “blowout” a “bloodbath” or a “maelstrom,” all the smart money is on a Republican landslide next Tuesday.
Late yesterday, the Hill released polling data taken by former Hillary Clinton pollster Mark Penn, predicting that Democrats would lose 50 or more seats in a “blowout” election. According to the writeup:
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll, surveying nearly 17,000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks, points to a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama’s party.
The data suggest a GOP pickup that could easily top 50 seats (the party needs 39 for control of the House).
The Cook Political Report is now projecting Democratic losses of 48 to 60 seats, “with higher losses possible.” According to Cook, “The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified.”
Handicapper Stu Rothenberg goes a step further:
With a week to go until Election Day, House Democrats face the potential of a political bloodbath the size of which we haven’t seen since the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
The largest midterm House loss for the president’s party during the last 50 years was 52 seats in 1994. The previous largest losses were 55 seats in 1942 and 71 seats in 1938.