Sarah Palin has blasted the Politico for running a story quoting anoymous GOP establishment figures trashing her chances as a presidential candidate. In an email to the Daily Caller mocking the Politico‘s reporting practices, Palin wrote:
“I suppose I could play their immature, unprofessional, waste-of-time game, too, by claiming these reporters and politicos are homophobe, child molesting, tax evading, anti-dentite, puppy-kicking, chain smoking porn producersâ€_really, they areâ€_ I’ve seen it myselfâ€_but I’ll only give you the information off-the-record, on deep, deep background; attribute these ‘facts’ to an ‘anonymous source’ and I’ll give you more.”
After reading this, I was reminded of Woody Allen in the role of a fictional Richard Nixon aide, who once said of the New York Times, “It’s a New York, Jewish, Communist, left-wing, homosexual newspaper. And that’s just the sports section.”
Last week, I noted that the contrast between the Democratic and Republican plans for election night tells us a lot about how they anticipate tomorrow will go. Nancy Pelosi is expected to attend an election watch reception at the Liaison, a boutique hotel on Capitol Hill, while John Boehner will be at a Republican gathering at the much larger downtown Grand Hyatt.
Well, I requested media credentials for both events, and was informed today by a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman that the Pelosi reception was “not an open event” at this time.
Surveying the polling data in Senate races nationwide, we see that Republicans may come up just short of taking over.
Republicans are in solid position to pick up seats in Arkansas, North Dakota, Indiana and Wisconsin. And though the race is still tighter than the others, recently Pat Toomey has opened up a more comfortable lead in Pennsylvania.
In Nevada, Colorado and Illinois, Republicans hold leads in recent polls, but they’re within the margin of error. Then there’s Washington state, where Dino Rossi seems to have gained the late momentum, but the race is too close to call. Yet if you assume that all the tossups go to the surging party and give all of these Senate races to the GOP, that would represent a pickup of 9 seats, leading to a 50-50 tie in the Senate.
Under that scenario, Joe Biden would become the tie-breaking vote to give control of the Senate to Democrats. Unless, of course, Ben Nelson or some other Democrat decides to pull a Jim Jeffords and switch parties to give Republicans control.
The final Gallup poll before the election shows likely voters favoring Republican candidates by an incredible 55 percent to 40 percent margin, an “unprecedented” number that could mean gains of more than 60 seats.
According to Gallup:
Gallup’s historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans’ current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.
It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.